Nigeria’s political debates and strategic movements are getting more intense as the country approaches the 2027 presidential election. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and well-known opposition politicians Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso are in the forefront of these developments.
The strategic talks of the opposition
The necessity of unity is becoming increasingly apparent in the wake of the 2023 elections, in which a fragmented opposition was unable to overthrow Tinubu.
Ibrahim Abdullahi, the PDP’s Deputy National Publicity Secretary, has previously pointed out that Obi and Kwankwaso might have stayed with the party if internal disputes had been handled more skillfully, which could have changed the election’s outcome.
He underlined that talks are still going on with the goal of assembling a strong coalition to take on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
Not all observers, meanwhile, are upbeat about the opposition’s prospects.
Deji Adeyanju, an activist lawyer, advised Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso against funding a second presidential campaign, claiming that even a unified opposition could be unable to defeat Tinubu’s political clout and Nigeria’s election system.
Demands for more extensive partnerships
Some voices are calling for an opposition coalition that is more inclusive than just Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso. Former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), Salihu Lukman, has called on prominent figures like Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Kayode Fayemi, and former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to support the opposition. He emphasized that the only viable approach to challenge the APC’s supremacy is to put aside personal goals in favor of creating a powerful political party.
The position of the ruling party
Regarding the 2027 elections, the APC is both optimistic and cautious. Although the party recognizes that the opposition may reorganize, it is still confident that President Tinubu’s government will fulfill its commitments and win over the public.
Ahmed S. Aruwa, the Kano APC Publicity Secretary, downplayed worries about Tinubu’s prospects of winning reelection. He asserts that Atiku Abubakar’s political career is coming to an end. Additionally, he disregarded Kwankwaso’s significance, claiming that his recent encounter with former Minister Rauf Aregbesola was only an attempt to stay in power.
Aruwa said, “Kwankwaso does not currently have a political party.”
“Tinubu’s economic reforms and war against insecurity are far superior to his overestimated popularity in the North.”
Predictions of analysts for 2027
There is still disagreement over the expected result of the 2027 elections.
Abdullahi Abba was a political analyst who supported an Atiku presidency. He maintained that Atiku’s lengthy political career has enabled him to amass a sizable network of allies and supporters throughout Nigeria.
According to Abba, “his connections within the party and the wider political landscape have been solidified by his previous roles, including serving as Vice President.”
Additionally, he pointed out that Atiku’s track record of establishing partnerships across regions and ethnic groups enhances his appeal as a unifying candidate. But he cautioned that party dynamics within the party could be problematic.
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“The PDP may become divided due to the aspirations of other powerful individuals, like Governors Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde. For Atiku to succeed, these dynamics must be controlled.
Taking a more comprehensive stance, political scientist Dr. Sa’id Dukawa of Bayero University Kano predicted that the 2027 election will be a full-scale conflict in which all significant parties would be actively involved.
Political coalitions and cross-carpeting are at an all-time high. Dukawa said, “2027 will be a game-changer, and politicians are getting ready early.”
Public opinion and the future
Nigerians’ expectations continue to diverge as political scheming escalates. A lot of people still want a government that can successfully combat corruption, economic instability, and insecurity.
He mirrored the growing mood of the public when he said that unless there are notable improvements, Tinubu would find it difficult to hold onto power.
Nigerians continue to be the final decision-makers when partnerships are formed and plans are developed. They will install a more promising candidate in 2027 to succeed Tinubu’s administration if they do not see the change they voted for.
The political landscape is changing quickly, therefore the upcoming years should be very active as the opposition and the ruling party prepare for the big fight.
According to Umar Ibrahim Umar, Executive Director of War Against Injustice, Tinubu’s prospects in 2027 may be threatened by the economic hardship brought on by his policies.
“More suffering than relief has resulted from the economic reforms.” There has been no improvement in the friendliness of subsequent policies, Umar stated.
Who will Northerners back in 2027?
If they decide to cast a ballot at all, many Northerners have not yet decided who would receive their votes.
The first significant economic policy that Nigerians questioned following Tinubu’s inauguration on May 29 was the increased cost of gasoline, which several Keke Napep riders voiced their displeasure with.
Kano reportedly voiced a strong complaint over having to renounce their higher-purchase agreements due to their inability to reach their daily goals.
“A liter of gasoline now costs over ₦1,000, and it doesn’t even last,” complains one rider.
“We are searching for food,” another said. Who has time to cast a ballot?
Many Nigerians are still sceptical about re-electing the current government, even in the face of heightened campaigns by APC leaders and Tinubu’s cabinet members—and news of plummeting food costs in several Northern Nigerian marketplaces.
They are thinking about options from the PDP, NNPP, or perhaps the LP because of the present uncertainties.
