With Brent crude prices down to $59.25 per barrel, much below the 2025 budget benchmark of $75, Nigeria is confronted with a double-barreled economic disaster. Political art posters from Nigeria F
The recent event has the potential to completely upend the country’s income forecasts and exchange rate stability.
According to Nairametrics, Nigeria may lose up to N19.6 trillion in anticipated oil revenue if crude output lags behind at just 1.67 million barrels per day (compared to the budgeted 2.06 million) and the naira depreciates past N1,600/$.
It is possible that the fiscal deficit may increase from N13 trillion to an astounding N30.79 trillion. Political art posters from Nigeria
According to analysts, persistently low oil prices may lead to fresh pressure on the foreign exchange market, making it more difficult for the Central Bank to protect the naira.
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If oil receipts keep declining, recent advances in net foreign exchange inflow ($15.2 billion in Q1) might not last.
Prices are further threatened by OPEC+’s proposal to reintroduce 2.2 million barrels per day by October, which is led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nigeria, which struggles with infrastructure deterioration and oil theft, is excluded from cartel advantages.
A high-level EMT subcommittee is already working on updated fiscal models, with an emphasis on expanding the tax base, digitizing revenue collection, and increasing oil output, according to Finance Minister Wale Edun.
